Federal scientists project an 81% chance of a major El Niño-here is what California seafood producers and commercial fleets need to know.
A recent report by the Los Angeles Times highlights growing concerns among ocean scientists and weather forecasters regarding a potential “super” El Niño event building in the Pacific. With NOAA now estimating an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño this season, ocean temperatures could surge by more than 2°C above average – bringing conditions reminiscent of the severe 2015-2016 marine heatwave.
For California’s commercial fisheries, processors, distributors, and working waterfronts, understanding these environmental shifts is critical for forward planning and risk management.
Key Takeaways for Commercial Fisheries
- Rising Ocean Temperatures & Disrupted Food Webs: Warmer surface waters suppress coastal upwelling – the process that brings cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. Reduced upwelling shrinks populations of high-energy prey like krill and forage fish, directly impacting species throughout the marine food chain.
- Salmon Fleet Outlook: The incoming system presents a complex double-edged sword:
- Freshwater Benefit: Heavy rainfall from El Niño can replenish inland river systems, aiding adult salmon spawning runs and out-migrating smolts.
- Ocean Survival Hit: Warm, prey-deficient ocean waters severely reduce juvenile ocean survival rates. Because salmon operate on a 2- to 3-year life cycle, the true impact on commercial salmon returns will echo into subsequent seasons.
- Dungeness Crab & Benthic Species: Higher ocean temperatures elevate the risk of harmful algal blooms (such as Pseudo-nitzschia), which produce domoic acid and can lead to delay or compression of commercial crab openers.
- Lessons from 2015–2016: During the last major El Niño, West Coast commercial fleets suffered significant revenue losses due to prolonged fishery closures, disaster declarations, and shifts in target species distributions.
Advocacy & Industry Action
Economics and ocean policy experts are urging federal and state leaders to prepare proactive disaster relief mechanisms and policy flexibility rather than waiting for fisheries to suffer losses.
CFSI will continue to:
- Monitor NOAA & CDFW Updates: Tracking oceanographic data, harmful algal bloom monitoring reports, and season projections.
- Advocate for Flexible Management: Working with state regulators to ensure adaptive, science-based management that protects resource health while maximizing fishing opportunities for commercial vessels.
- Encourage Disaster Preparedness & Federal Relief: Supporting preemptive legislative measures and relief funding frameworks so California’s working waterfronts receive swift financial assistance if conditions escalate.